SKU Proliferation: Five Vendors, One Forecast
The Practitioner Files

You Don’t Need Five Forecasts for Five Vendors

Five vendors, five item numbers, one part. A demand planning leader explains how her team pools history, carries demand onto replacement items, and lets stocking location decide where the forecast lives.

A conversation between Sujit Singh, COO of Arkieva, and a demand planning leader at an automotive aftermarket distributor carrying more than a million SKUs across 75 locations.

The morning of this conversation, three items came up for elimination for our demand planner. Same base part, different vendors, different item numbers, and not enough volume on any of them to plan against.

Sujit asked why a distributor would carry five versions of the same part at all. Every answer was a sound business decision. What interested him was what this team established going forward, so those decisions stopped costing them forecast accuracy.

What This Team Does Differently

WHY IT MATTERS: Every additional vendor splits the demand signal. That costs you sales at the branch, not just accuracy at the end of the month.

They pool sales history under one planning code.

On full transmissions, every brand that shares a code reports into a single forecast. The team plans one brand, stocks it only where it sells, and keeps the rest available as special orders. Customers still get the label they want.

They combine a retiring item’s demand with its replacement.

When product management decides a version goes away, the platform moves its demand onto the one that stays. That piece runs on its own. The rest is still manual, with roughly half the sales moved across by hand.

They let stocking location decide where the history lives.

Stocking codes tell the platform where a product is carried, and the history follows. A high forecast sitting at the Texas DC moved to a branch in New Mexico once that was where the demand moved.

The Conversation, in Three Parts

Part 1. Why one part becomes five

Planner reviewing a printed report at a laptop

Sujit: The same part can come from five vendors, or three, or however many. Each one carries its own brand name, and people prefer one over another, so I can see the reason behind having them. But as a supply chain professional, I would imagine that carrying five versions of the same product is a pain. Would you agree?

Planner: Yes. It’s a pain. You’ll see the same item number with a letter at the front or at the end, and that letter tells you whether it’s aftermarket or OEM, or more often which vendor it came from. Some of our vendors are the brand. Now we’re introducing our own brand on top of that. So it becomes very splintered. Instead of selling one item that’s more predictable, we have five that are all over the place in 75 locations.

Sujit: Then why carry five?

Planner: A few reasons. New vendors, or problems with a current vendor. We like at least two sources when we can, because there are real supply issues with car parts. Things happen in the world, and you can’t get product out of certain places. Then there’s pricing. A vendor raises their cost. We can’t sell at that price, so we look for another vendor, or we build our own brand to get a better price. And once those versions exist, customer preference makes it hard to take any of them away.

“

Instead of selling one item that’s more predictable, we have five that are all over the place in 75 locations.

Sujit: And the demand on a lot of these is not large to begin with.

Planner: Right. A lot of our volume is low and very sporadic. Split that across five item numbers and 75 locations, and it becomes really hard to plan at all. The location matters more here than people assume. A customer isn’t walking in off the street. A shop has a car up on the racks. They need five parts, and if we don’t have all five at that branch, they aren’t going to buy two from us and three from a competitor. They’ll go to the competitor. We just lost the sale.

Sujit: So the split shows up at the counter, not only in the forecast.

Planner: That’s why we recommend not having five varieties. Have one, because it’s easier to forecast, you’re going to sell it, and we can make sure it’s in the right place.

DESCRIBE THE IMAGE HERE

Part 2. The monthly argument

Product management decides which versions go. The planning team decides whether the demand agrees

Man viewing printed charts

Sujit: Who decides which versions go away?

Planner: Product management generally tells us which vendor brand they’re getting rid of or replacing. Our job is to look at what the demand says and push back where we need to. We’ll tell them, “Customers prefer that vendor, so I’m not taking it down as far as you asked, because they’re going to buy it.” If we have no forecast, we’ll have no product. Most of the time they go with our recommendation, unless there’s a reason they have to keep it.

Sujit: Once you agree that one version goes, what happens to its history?

Planner: If it’s systematic, the system knows which one replaces it and moves the demand across. We’ve been working on that with product management and inventory for about six months now. The rest is manual. We’ll take half the sales off one and put them on the other by hand.

Sujit: And this morning?

Planner: Three items. I went to product management and asked why we even have them. We aren’t selling them. Get rid of them. They agreed.

Part 3. The parts that run themselves

One product line needs no one to catch it. The rest still comes back every month.

Sujit: Is there a version of this that doesn’t need a person to catch it every time?

Planner: On one product line, yes. Full units, the expensive ones, big enough that we can’t store them everywhere anyway. We built logic around the vendor code that says, “No matter what brand is selling, I only want to plan this one, and only in these locations.” The system pulls the history from every version under that code into one, puts it on the version we chose to plan, and places it where the product actually sells.

Sujit: And the customer who wants a different brand?

Planner: They can still order it. It becomes a special order. We just don’t want to plan five of them and hold that much inventory on product that expensive. That one has worked very well compared to anything we had before. I wish we could get there on more of the product lines.

Sujit: Does the same idea work for where the demand sits, not just which brand?

Planner: It does. We have stocking codes, and the logic says if something is stocked in a location, keep the history there and forecast it there. A product might start out in the DCs only, and as it starts selling somewhere else, we move the history to the branch closest to it. We had a high forecast in Texas where our DC is, and suddenly it was needed in New Mexico. We have a location there, so the history moved and we started planning it there.

Two men viewing laptop

Sujit’s Read: What This Looks Like Across Companies

Nobody sets out to carry five versions of the same part. Each one arrives as a reasonable answer to a real problem: a supply risk, a price increase, a brand a customer insists on. The decisions are sound in isolation. What accumulates is a demand signal cut into pieces too small to plan against, and in most companies nobody owns that consequence.

What this team did is worth copying. They stopped trying to keep the catalog clean and made the demand signal independent of the item number. History pools under a code, follows the item that replaces it, and sits where the product is stocked. New vendors can keep arriving. The forecast stops paying for them.

TWO CAUTIONS

1. This runs end to end on one product line, and the rest of the catalog still comes back to her desk every month.

2. The split costs more than forecast accuracy. A shop that can’t get all five parts at one branch buys none of them, so fragmentation reaches the counter before it ever reaches a planning review.

A QUESTION TO TAKE BACK TO YOUR TEAM: Which of your item numbers are really the same product, and is anything pooling their history?

This is one piece in a longer set of conversations with practitioners about what it takes to stay ready for the disruptions that arrive in ordinary, unglamorous ways. More of these conversations are coming.

Continue the Practitioner Files

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