Forecasting Fallacy: Locking A Piece Of A Forecast
Is “locking” a piece of your forecast a good solution?
Frequently, people looking at Demand Planning software will express a need to “lock” some customers’ forecasts while leaving others unlocked. Generally, what is really desired is a mechanism for indicating that some forecasts are more credible than others. Indeed, different levels of uncertainty between forecast streams have to be handled, but simple locking is not a good solution. Let us first look at the problems introduced by attempting to “lock” a forecast, and then look at alternative means for addressing the different levels of uncertainty.
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